Confidence Interval
Domain: Evaluation
🎯 Motivation
A range that likely contains the true performance. ‘85% ± 3%’ means the true accuracy is probably between 82% and 88%.
📋 Concrete Example
95% confidence interval: 82%-88%. This means we are 95% sure the true accuracy is in this range. Smaller interval = more precise estimate.
🔗 Analogy
A weather forecast: ‘30-40% chance of rain.’ The range gives uncertainty. A confidence interval gives the range for the model’s true performance.